Russia Enters the Fray. Syria is Now the World’s Most Dangerous Flashpoint writes ISA in an update from the battlefield.With Russia continuing to increase its military presence in Syria in order to support the government of President Bashar al-Assad in that country’s civil war, it is placing its military assets in close proximity to those of the United States, Turkey and a host of other NATO member states. Russia’s immediate plans in Syria appear to be the establishment of a safe zone in northwestern Syria, where the Assad regime enjoys a good deal of support from Syria’s religious minorities. However, Russia is also using the air power that it has based in northwestern Syria to carry out attacks on rebel groups opposed to the Assad regime, including the radical Islamic State (IS). Should these air strikes spread to areas of Syria where the United States and its NATO allies are carrying out air operations, the potential for an inadvertent clash between NATO and Russian aircraft could result, a development that could dramatically raise tensions between NATO and Russia.
Foreign Powers Proliferate in Syria
Russia’s entry into the civil war in Syria places it amid an already crowded field of domestic and foreign actors involved in the fighting in Syria. The United States and a number of its allies inside NATO (Turkey, Canada, and France) and outside (Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Australia) have been targeting Islamic State militants for more than a year and while having crippled the IS’ economic base, they have done little to prevent the IS from expanding the territory under its control in eastern, northern and central Syria. Moreover, Turkey and Jordan have both proposed the creation of safe zones for rebels fighting against the Assad regime in northern and southwestern Syria. However, these safe zones are likely to be used as bases for some of the very same rebel groups that are now being targeted by Russian air strikes. As a result, if the United States, Turkey and their allies intend to step up their attacks on Islamic State militants and provide more support for rebel groups opposed to the Assad regime, they are likely to find themselves facing Russian opposition for the first time.
Russia’s Aims in Syria
For Russia, its stated aim is to prevent the fall of the Assad regime and, at the very least, provide for a safe haven for the Syrian government and its backers within the country’s religious minorities. It also claims that it has expanded its military presence in Syria in order to support the international community’s efforts to defeat the Islamic State, although thus far, most of Russia’s operations have been directed against other rebel groups. Just how many military assets Russia intends to commit to Syria remains to be seen, but in order to prevent the weakening Assad regime from losing more ground, it will need to further bolster its military forces in Syria. If this occurs, it will put pressure on the United States, Turkey and others to respond in kind and this could turn the civil war in Syria from a primarily domestic affair to a fully internationalized conflict involving some of the most powerful armed forces in the world.
A Very Dangerous Flashpoint
The most dangerous scenario at present is one where Russian forces find themselves clashing with those of the United States, Turkey or one of their allies, most likely in the air. Already, Turkey has accused Russian warplanes of violating its air space and more such incursions could lead to clashes between Russian and Turkish aircraft near to the Syrian-Turkish border. Furthermore, Russia could carry out more attacks on rebel groups that are backed by the United States or other coalition members and this could lead to these rebel forces being armed with weapons capable of downing Russian aircraft. As a result, the potential for actual clashes involving Russian forces on one side and US or Turkish forces on the other has risen dramatically in recent days. Given the already considerable tensions between Russia on one side and the US and Turkey on the other, Syria must now be considered a flashpoint that has the potential to lead to a major wider conflict between NATO and Russia.
